How the MPS works?

How the MPS works?

The key is the relationship between any probability and the number of arrears/delays that has not happened (MP).  In any game of chance (including life), Normal is usually equilibrium, when that balance is broken we call it streak statistics, usually the higher is the initial probability of an event, the faster the streak breaks and everything returns to normality.

The system is able to relate the initial probability of something with the number of times that takes without occur,  achieving an useful approximation to determine the moment/time when the streak is going to break.

How far do you want to go?

As I mentioned in the previous article there is a relationship between the initial probability and the maximum number that can reach a statistical streak,  You can find a MP calculator in my blog, so you can see how many times can be extended in time a streak according to its Initial Probability until reach MP 99.99

As you see the higher IP, the faster we reach MP 99.99, the method works well from an IP at least 25-30%, lower than it takes too long until we reach MP 99.99 always starting the monitoring when MP is bigger than 99,50, although it is true that the odds will be higher, perhaps it may be worth playing  IP 20% as minimun sometimes...
For higher IP 65-75% odds are lower, but we are confident it will quickly fulfilled, these can be exploited playing ‘live betting’ waiting until they rise.

I'm still collecting data and want to be cautious so I'm going to say that from MP 99,50 till MP 99,99 fulfill 97% of cases

Real Data: Facts speak louder than ME

UNDER 2,5 HT2
IP
87,61
Delay
2
MP
99,81
HISTORIC HIGH
2

Under 2,5 in second half, goals of both teams
This is of those that fulfill at first time, obviosly you can only play it in the live, waiting until the odds increases

Green at first time!

 

MORE GOALS SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT: DRAW
SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT SCOREs SAME NUMBER OF GOAL IN BOTH HALVES
IP
43,66
Delay
14
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
14

We keep adding monitorings, this time the MP is very high. Nevertheless, due to its IP could be extended two or three times, if you want to play it plan your bankroll.

Fulfilled at 4th

MP CALCULATOR

Here you have a tool to calculate MP, just enter your data and clic calculate

Example: Team X wins 50.5% of its matches, has been 7 consecutives matches not winning:
IP: 50.5
DELAY: 7
Clic on calculate to get the MP

IP (initial probability):
DELAY:
MP (Monitoring Probability):

Challenge

Hi everyone!

I opened posts in forums to show how the system works, and to leave public record of the monitorings or picks

http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/2486088531/m/4217069086

http://www.betting-forum.com/threads/challange-monitoring-probability-strategy.25576/

https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153287-challange-monitoring-probability-strategy/

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1047086

if you know others betting forums please tell me


I recomend you visit punterslouge forum post, where I'm more active.
Soon I will publish a summary of the challenge so far.

Another pick for this week is Aston Villa, 6 consecutives times NG, his IP is 54.70. MP is located on 99,61. this time his odds will be close to 2 or higher
PICK: Both teams will score (GG)

Fullfilled at first time!

On this time Arsenal, the premier team carrying two consecutive games without scoring, with very high IP, 83.40% and 2 DELAYS, his MP is located in 99.54. the odds is not the best in the world but sure will occur at most in the next two games, for these cases with such low odds it is interesting to play live betting
PICK: Arsenal score at least one goal

Green at first time!

 

This time we have a team of the Premier, Southampton, has had a run of six consecutive games in which their rivals have not scored a goal, with an IP 63.60% and 6 DELAYS, the MP is located in 99.91. Quite high so it has to happen quickly.

PICK: their opponents score at least one goal
next opponents are Chelsea, Bournemouth and Sunderland

Green at first time!