Introduction to Monitoring Probability Strategy

The basic concept is quite simple, succinctly explained, the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur.

Explanation of the basics of the system with a practical example

Ideally speaking in a toss coin the probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, this is what in the method we call Initial Probability (IP), if we make a roll and get heads, what is more likely to come out on second roll? And in the third, fourth or fifth roll? if we roll the coin five times and has appeared five times the heads, then we say that the probability of tails have a DELAY of five consecutive times.

You may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them, but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?

EXPLANATION OF THE MONITORING PROBABILITY (MP)

Let's see how it works from an initial probability (IP) 50%:
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%

In short, there are three basic concepts

1-IP, pure chance that a result occur, for example Chelsea wins 55 percent of Matches

2-DELAY, number of consecutives delays/arrears that a result is not happening

3-MP monitoring probability, numerical relationship between IP and DELAY

But how you can apply this system to sports betting? Surely you be thinking that in football there are many others factors that doesn't have to do with pure chance.., then, lets see real data from your favorite teams:

• Chelsea wins, we see that IP is 55%, see what has been its historic high of Manchester City has been without winning (DELAY): is 7 times
• Another example, over 2.5 in Chelsea matches, their IP is 58%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 6
• Manchester City score exactly 1 goal, IP is 25%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 21
• Leicester score at least one goal, IP 81%, maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened 5

As you can see there is a direct relationship between the initial probability (IP) and the maximum number of DELAYS that can reach, so we can get to play at the right time, knowing that the greater the MP the nearer this result is to occur.

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Six ways of taking advantage of Monitoring Probability Strategy

1. Uses as reference:

In this case you only uses the MP as another info to plan your bets, you consider others variables that have to do with football, this depends on your knowledge or your favorite tipster's
MPS will increase your percentage of success A LOT


2. Bet only if the monitoring meets certain parameters:

for example bet only with IP between 40-50% when MP has exceeded 99.85, or when also is at  its historic high, or one before, or one next ... Or those that are in MP 99.99 ...


3. Playing on “live betting” the monitorings that have IP >75-80%

when they’re on its historic high or if next match it will have MP 99,99 or 100. Of course you have to follow the match and wait until the circunstances let you make a bet with a decent odds (at least 2 or near to that, 1/1).
an example: if you have a monitoring like "CHELSEA WILL SCORE: YES", if at minute 45 chelsea still haven't scored and odds is 2 or near to it bet, or even wait until odds is higher...


4. Making martingale until three steps:

It's risky to win but not impossible, I would divide my bankroll here among at least 7, and play each with monitorings that have odds at least 2 when they're on its historic high, or near to reach it, or with MP 99.99, or use all this and what I have written in point number 1..

Or would try to play bets like "Team X wins or draw", where you have 2 positions against 1 to win, and play it when it's on its historic high, this kind of Monitorings works quite well, the pros that you will get a lot of greens at first time and cons that the odds are sometimes highly variable

Another kind of bet that can work is 'Over 1,5 goals', the cons that odds usually are quite low..

5. Another variant that is also risky is martingale to 4-6 steps:

an interesting fact is that starting from MP 99.50 the 90% fulfills in the next 5 times, thus starting a monitoring when you are with an higher MP increases your success.
For this cases play IP 45-60 if odds are higher than 2, and start when MP >99,85
Or play odds >3 (Use the BET PLANNING tool you have in my blog)


6. Winning 99% of time:

Divide your bankroll in at least 5 banks, for example if you have 1000 € :

Bank 1: 200 €
Bank 2: 200 €
Bank 3: 200 €
Bank 4: 200 €

Bank 5: 200 €

And play with this indications:

IP 20-30% if odds will be higher than 4, start when MP >99,85

IP 30-45% if odds will be higher than 3, start when MP >99,80

IP 45-60% if odds will be higher than 2, start when MP >99,90

Use the Bet Planning tool to calculate the steps you need to play according to its odds, try to not play for more than 1% of a bank. you can play odds 2,1-2,5 as if they were 2. Odds 3,10-3,50 as if they were 3 etc..
If you win 200 €  open another one and play with 6 banks.

This is the original purpose of the system, you can win 3% of your money per month, adding the compound interest you can win 42% of your money per year, not bad given that nowadays Fixed-term deposit in a bank gives only 6% of return and you don't have your money available. 

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Of course you can play mixing the different approaches...

Real Data: Facts Speak Louder than ME

Today I want to discuss with those who have criticized the Monitoring Probability Strategy talking about "Gambler's fallacy" because altough I'm showing in my Challenge it works, they repeat me the same all time long, even a guy told me that "DELAYS are not related to probability" and laughed at me saying: "I play Euromillions everyday and I can't win!", my reply was something like: "For Euromillions you have to wait millions and millions of times, for any other game where you have a probability (IP) higher than 20% use the MP Calculator there is in my blog"...
Some people insist on not wanting to see, I'm sure when I finished the challenge, they will change their minds..
Meanwhile I'm going to show you some facts...

I have a huge database and can see the Historic High of delay of thousands bets and a hundred of teams.
So lets going to look HISTORIC HIGH of delays that has reached..,  for example, the Premier League leader Leicester City:

EVEN	ODD	EVEN HT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT	LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT	LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP	IP	IP
46,61	53,39	56,64
HISTORIC HIGH	HISTORIC HIGH	HISTORIC HIGH
8	6	6



ODD HT	EVEN HT2	ODD HT2
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT	LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT	LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP	IP	IP
43,36	52,21	47,79
HISTORIC HIGH	HISTORIC HIGH	HISTORIC HIGH
13	6	7

* LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT means total goals.

If you calculate its MP none of them exceeded 99,99
I chose EVEN AND ODD because people usually think that soccer is not a game of chance as any other, and even and odd is consider to be chance, what in football they think is more similiar to a toss coin..,but for me everything is the same, lets see other statistics that people think governed by football's criteria:

LEICESTER CITY WINS

IP

48,38

HISTORIC HIGH

13

The same, if you calculate its MP you will have 99,990

DOUBLE CHANGE LEICESTER CITY DRAW OR LOSES

IP

51,62

HISTORIC HIGH

7

over again, this time is not even near 99.99..

LEICESTER CITY SCORES HT: YES

IP

50,74

HISTORIC HIGH

9

the same

LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES

IP

46,31

HISTORIC HIGH

9

over and over again, the same, there is a breaking point at MP 99.99. and more than 98% of time fulfills
Lets see now others with lower IP, so the odds for this one used to be over 3 or 4, sometimes even over 9:

LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT WINS HT2

IP

22,71

HISTORIC HIGH

22

If you calculate its MP for this historic high would be 99,73

 

LEICESTER CITY SCORES BOTH HALVES: YES

IP

32,15

HISTORIC HIGH

18

MP: 99,93 for this one..

*For calculate the Monitoring Probability you can use the MP Calculator in my blog: MPSbets. Remember that we enter to bet when MP is over 99.50 and we're going to succeed before exceeding 99.99, >99.995 (we call it MP100).

SIX WAYS OF TAKING ADVANTAGE OF MONITORING PROBABILITY STRATEGY

How the MPS works?

How the MPS works?

The key is the relationship between any probability and the number of arrears/delays that has not happened (MP).  In any game of chance (including life), Normal is usually equilibrium, when that balance is broken we call it streak statistics, usually the higher is the initial probability of an event, the faster the streak breaks and everything returns to normality.

The system is able to relate the initial probability of something with the number of times that takes without occur,  achieving an useful approximation to determine the moment/time when the streak is going to break.

How far do you want to go?

As I mentioned in the previous article there is a relationship between the initial probability and the maximum number that can reach a statistical streak,  You can find a MP calculator in my blog, so you can see how many times can be extended in time a streak according to its Initial Probability until reach MP 99.99

As you see the higher IP, the faster we reach MP 99.99, the method works well from an IP at least 25-30%, lower than it takes too long until we reach MP 99.99 always starting the monitoring when MP is bigger than 99,50, although it is true that the odds will be higher, perhaps it may be worth playing  IP 20% as minimun sometimes...
For higher IP 65-75% odds are lower, but we are confident it will quickly fulfilled, these can be exploited playing ‘live betting’ waiting until they rise.

I'm still collecting data and want to be cautious so I'm going to say that from MP 99,50 till MP 99,99 fulfill 97% of cases

Real Data: Facts speak louder than ME