Thursday, 3 March 2016

Real Data: Facts Speak Louder than ME

Today I want to discuss with those who have criticized the Monitoring Probability Strategy talking about "Gambler's fallacy" because altough I'm showing in my Challenge it works, they repeat me the same all time long, even a guy told me that "DELAYS are not related to probability" and laughed at me saying: "I play Euromillions everyday and I can't win!", my reply was something like: "For Euromillions you have to wait millions and millions of times, for any other game where you have a probability (IP) higher than 20% use the MP Calculator there is in my blog"...
Some people insist on not wanting to see, I'm sure when I finished the challenge, they will change their minds..
Meanwhile I'm going to show you some facts...

I have a huge database and can see the Historic High of delay of thousands bets and a hundred of teams.
So lets going to look HISTORIC HIGH of delays that has reached..,  for example, the Premier League leader Leicester City:
EVEN
ODD
EVEN HT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
IP
IP
46,61
53,39
56,64
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
8
6
6

ODD HT
EVEN HT2
ODD HT2
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
IP
IP
43,36
52,21
47,79
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
13
6
7

* LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT means total goals.

If you calculate its MP none of them exceeded 99,99
I chose EVEN AND ODD because people usually think that soccer is not a game of chance as any other, and even and odd is consider to be chance, what in football they think is more similiar to a toss coin..,but for me everything is the same, lets see other statistics that people think governed by football's criteria:

LEICESTER CITY WINS
 
IP
48,38
HISTORIC HIGH
13
The same, if you calculate its MP you will have 99,990

DOUBLE CHANGE LEICESTER CITY DRAW OR LOSES
 
IP
51,62
HISTORIC HIGH
7
over again, this time is not even near 99.99..
LEICESTER CITY SCORES HT: YES
 
IP
50,74
HISTORIC HIGH
9
the same

LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
 
IP
46,31
HISTORIC HIGH
9

over and over again, the same, there is a breaking point at MP 99.99. and more than 98% of time fulfills
Lets see now others with lower IP, so the odds for this one used to be over 3 or 4, sometimes even over 9:
LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT WINS HT2
 
IP
22,71
HISTORIC HIGH
22
If you calculate its MP for this historic high would be 99,73
 
LEICESTER CITY SCORES BOTH HALVES: YES
 
IP
32,15
HISTORIC HIGH
18
MP: 99,93 for this one..

*For calculate the Monitoring Probability you can use the MP Calculator in my blog: MPSbets. Remember that we enter to bet when MP is over 99.50 and we're going to succeed before exceeding 99.99, >99.995 (we call it MP100).

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