The basic concept is quite simple, succinctly
explained, the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur.
Explanation of the basics of the system with a practical example
Ideally speaking in a toss coin the probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, this is what in the method we call Initial Probability (IP), if we make a roll and get heads, what is more likely to come out on second roll? And in the third, fourth or fifth roll? if we roll the coin five times and has appeared five times the heads, then we say that the probability of tails have a DELAY of five consecutive times.
You
may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them,
but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that
initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?
EXPLANATION OF THE MONITORING PROBABILITY (MP)
Let's see how it works from an initial probability (IP) 50%:
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%
In short, there are three basic concepts
1-IP, pure chance that a result occur, for example Chelsea wins 55 percent of Matches
2-DELAY, number of consecutives delays/arrears that a result is not happening
3-MP monitoring probability, numerical relationship between IP and DELAY
But how you can apply this system to sports betting? Surely you be thinking
that in football there are many others factors that doesn't have to do with pure
chance.., then, lets see real data from your favorite teams:
- Chelsea wins, we see that IP is 55%, see what has been its historic high of Manchester City has been without winning (DELAY): is 7 times
- Another example, over 2.5 in Chelsea matches, their IP is 58%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 6
- Manchester City score exactly 1 goal, IP is 25%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 21
- Leicester score at least one goal, IP 81%, maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened 5
As you can see there is a direct relationship between the initial probability (IP)
and the maximum number of DELAYS that can reach, so we can get to
play at the right time, knowing that the greater the MP the nearer this
result is to occur.
Follow my CHALLENGE to see how accurate is or...
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8 comments:
Good afternoon , and how to calculate the IP?
IP is just the probability, for example: if Chelsea plays 100 matches and wins 50 the IP would be 50%
and how many games do you think ?
you need at least its last 100-200 matches to get the IP
Good day,
I find your method interesting, and I would like to put in some questions to better understand it.
1) MP: How do you concretely build it up?
Current season? Historical data (i.e. 2000-2016)? 100/Odd?
Any method you choose fluctuate over time and change after every fixture, while a Coin Toss is 50/50 no matter what.
Can you have a deep explaination?
2) DELAY: I suppose you apply the current delay.
(ie. on Day 1 a Team with IP 70 on O2.5 makes an over, on day 2, 3, 4, 5 doesn't.
The Delay is 4 then, correct?)
How do you contemplate max historical delay? Just for accademical purpose?
Thank You
Hi martinbet
The probability is quite simple, an example: if in the last years Chelsea has win 50% of its matches, then IP is 50%.
Some people have asked me about fluctuations in different seasons of a team, that's truth.. but what you have to see is its long-term stats...
delay is quite simple too, if a team has been 3 matches losing, then the delay of "team wins" is 3...
about historic high..., is useful because most of time the monitorings fulfill at its historic high, but not always, sometimes you have a streak that surpasses it, that's why I say that what matters is the MP
Hi,
It seems interesting, though it's known that a coin toss is alwasy on 50% of probability when launched... no question on this, the scientific literature is clear. Anyway I would like to try your system on my own as in soccer matches the probability of an event can only be estimated and so is largerly unknown.
Which is the formula to calculate the MP?
Thanks.
How to calcule MP?
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