Wednesday, 30 March 2016

EVEN HT
SAMPDORIA+OPPONENT
IP
58,82
Delay
5
MP
99,51
HISTORIC HIGH
5
Even on first half, total goals.
It can extend until next 6 matches, but I post it now because is on its Historic High
Next Opponents: Fiorentina, Udinese, AC Milan, Sassuolo, Lazio and Palermo

Green at first time!

Tuesday, 29 March 2016

 
DOUBLE CHANCE TROYES WINS OR DRAW
 
IP
64,13
Delay
5
MP
99,79
HISTORIC HIGH
6
It's going to fullfill before next six opponents...
So Next five Opponents are: Angers, Saint Etienne, Reims, Montpellier and Bordeaux.

Fulfilled at 3rd


MANCHESTER CITY SCORES: YES
 
IP
84,50
Delay
3
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
3
Manchester City has 3 consecutive times not scoring, with very high IP is going to happens in the next two matches, this is a Monitoring for try to play it in "live betting" if in the second half Manchester still has not scored and odds are >2.
Next Opponents: Bournemouth and PSG
 
 
I have also an over 1,5 that can extend 3 matches:

OVER 1,5
MANCHESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
79,53
Delay
3
MP
99,82
HISTORIC HIGH
3
 
 
Green at first time!
 
 
DOUBLE CHANCE ASTON VILLA WINS OR DRAW
 
IP
60,06
Delay
6
MP
99,84
HISTORIC HIGH
6

For those who still haven't learn how the system works: Aston Villa have a 60,06 of probability that wins or draw, Have lost its last 6 matches, so we have a delay of 6 consecutives times that the result doesn't happens, what give us an MP 99,84...

For reaching MP 99,99 it can extend until next five matches, but will probably fulfilled before that.
As first opponent is Chelsea, then it could be advisable wait and bet the next opponent, even wait for Southampton match... but who knows, maybe it fulfills at first time...

Next Opponents are: Chelsea, Bournemouth, Manchester, Southampton and Watford

Friday, 18 March 2016

NORWICH WINS
 
IP
41,69
Delay
11
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
11
I post this pick to show one more way to take advantage of the strategy, Norwich will win before next 7 games, so my recommendation is that you play it only if you believe you will win, because one way to play is lean on the system, but bet based on your soccer knowledge, intuition, rational facts...
Next opponents: West Bromwich, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Sunderland etc.

Green at first time! with odds 3,70
EVEN HT
TOTTENHAM+OPPONENT
IP
56,69
Delay
9
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
9
Even in first half time, total goals
can extend untill next 3 matches
Next opponents: Bournemouth, Liverpool and Manchester United

Green at first time!

Tuesday, 8 March 2016

OVER 2,5 HT2
FC KOLN+OPPONENT. HALF TIME 2
IP
21,60
Delay
26
MP
99,86
HISTORIC HIGH
26
Another pick that can extended to more than 10 times (use the MP calculator from my blog), but the odds is very high, 5.5 for its next match, so if you have enough bankroll can start to follow from right now, if not wait until MP is higher
Next opponents are: Hannover, Bayern, hoffenheim, Bayer Leverkusen....

Fulfilled at 6th with odds 5
ODD HT2
Hertha Berlin+OPPONENT
IP
47,21
Delay
11
MP
99,95
HISTORIC HIGH
11
Odd half time 2, total goals.
A monitoring that can extend until next 4 matches.
Next Opponents are: Schalke 04, Ingolstadt, Borussia Monchengladbach and Hannover 96

Green at first time!

Friday, 4 March 2016


DOUBLE CHANCE ARSENAL WINS OR DRAW
 
IP
77,29
Delay
3
MP
99,73
HISTORIC HIGH
3
going to fulfill in the next 2 matches
next opponents are: Tottenham and Hull city

Green at first time!
DEPORTIVO CORUÑA WINS
 
IP
36,03
Delay
13
MP
99,81
HISTORIC HIGH
14
Team from La Liga, Deportivo Coruña, on one of the worst streak of its history, According to Monitoring Probability Stratety is going to break in the next 9 matches, but I put it now because I think is not going to last so long.
next opponents: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Levante, Celta Vigo, Las Palmas, Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar and Getafe

Fulfilled at 3rd
BOTH SCORE HT: NO
NG HALF TIME 1
IP
84,41
Delay
3
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
3
Another pick for french ligue 1 Guingamp
odds will be awful but whit this IP is going to fullfill before next three matches, this is for playing in "live betting" if odds increases.
Next 2 opponents are: Lyon and Saint Etienne

Fullfilled at second time
OVER 3,5
BASTIA+OPPONENT
IP
25,48
Delay
24
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
24
French league 1, total goals
Today I going to show you a pick that have quite low IP, if you have studied a little bit the Monitoring Probability Strategy you'll know that can extend until MP 99,99.(use the MP Calculator there is in my blog: MPSbets) so to reach that can extend until next 8 matches, but I think is going to fulfill before that...
you can do 2 things: wait until MP is higher, or plan your bankroll to play it for next 8-9 opponents
I have looked odds and for its first match again Lorient is 4.5, in next matches will be also around that.
Next opponents are: Lorient, Nantes, Lille, Bordeaux, Marseille, Toulouse, Saint Etienne and Ajaccio Gfco

Fulfilled at 6th with odds 4,33

Thursday, 3 March 2016

Real Data: Facts Speak Louder than ME

Today I want to discuss with those who have criticized the Monitoring Probability Strategy talking about "Gambler's fallacy" because altough I'm showing in my Challenge it works, they repeat me the same all time long, even a guy told me that "DELAYS are not related to probability" and laughed at me saying: "I play Euromillions everyday and I can't win!", my reply was something like: "For Euromillions you have to wait millions and millions of times, for any other game where you have a probability (IP) higher than 20% use the MP Calculator there is in my blog"...
Some people insist on not wanting to see, I'm sure when I finished the challenge, they will change their minds..
Meanwhile I'm going to show you some facts...

I have a huge database and can see the Historic High of delay of thousands bets and a hundred of teams.
So lets going to look HISTORIC HIGH of delays that has reached..,  for example, the Premier League leader Leicester City:
EVEN
ODD
EVEN HT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
IP
IP
46,61
53,39
56,64
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
8
6
6

ODD HT
EVEN HT2
ODD HT2
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
IP
IP
43,36
52,21
47,79
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
HISTORIC HIGH
13
6
7

* LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT means total goals.

If you calculate its MP none of them exceeded 99,99
I chose EVEN AND ODD because people usually think that soccer is not a game of chance as any other, and even and odd is consider to be chance, what in football they think is more similiar to a toss coin..,but for me everything is the same, lets see other statistics that people think governed by football's criteria:

LEICESTER CITY WINS
 
IP
48,38
HISTORIC HIGH
13
The same, if you calculate its MP you will have 99,990

DOUBLE CHANGE LEICESTER CITY DRAW OR LOSES
 
IP
51,62
HISTORIC HIGH
7
over again, this time is not even near 99.99..
LEICESTER CITY SCORES HT: YES
 
IP
50,74
HISTORIC HIGH
9
the same

LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
 
IP
46,31
HISTORIC HIGH
9

over and over again, the same, there is a breaking point at MP 99.99. and more than 98% of time fulfills
Lets see now others with lower IP, so the odds for this one used to be over 3 or 4, sometimes even over 9:
LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT WINS HT2
 
IP
22,71
HISTORIC HIGH
22
If you calculate its MP for this historic high would be 99,73
 
LEICESTER CITY SCORES BOTH HALVES: YES
 
IP
32,15
HISTORIC HIGH
18
MP: 99,93 for this one..

*For calculate the Monitoring Probability you can use the MP Calculator in my blog: MPSbets. Remember that we enter to bet when MP is over 99.50 and we're going to succeed before exceeding 99.99, >99.995 (we call it MP100).

Wednesday, 2 March 2016

BOTH SCORE HT2: NO
NG HALF TIME 2
IP
75,87
Delay
6
MP
99,99
HISTORIC HIGH
6

another pick from french ligue 1 Saint Etienne, NG in second half time, can extend two times, so next two opponents are: Paris Saint Germain and Angers

fulfilled at first time!
VALENCIA'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
 
IP
53,78
Delay
7
MP
99,79
HISTORIC HIGH
12
another one from LA LIGA (spanish first division) this time with Valencia's opponent scores half time 1, just to say that it's not going to surpass its historic high record, so make your own calculations..
next opponents are: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Levante and Athletico Bilbao again

Green at first time!
 
DOUBLE CHANCE GETAFE WINS OR DRAW
 
IP
55,63
Delay
7
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
7

nothing to say about this monitoring, just that can extend until next five matches.
Next opponents are: Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar, Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal
first three and Villarreal are powerful opponents, so the odds will be fine

Green at first time!