Today I want to discuss with those who have criticized the
Monitoring Probability Strategy talking about "Gambler's fallacy" because altough I'm showing in my
Challenge it works, they repeat me the same all time long, even a guy told me that "DELAYS are not related to probability" and laughed at me saying: "I play Euromillions everyday and I can't win!", my reply was something like: "For Euromillions you have to wait millions and millions of times, for any other game where you have a probability (IP) higher than 20% use the
MP Calculator there is in my blog"...
Some people insist on not wanting to see, I'm sure when I finished the challenge, they will change their minds..
Meanwhile I'm going to show you some facts...
I have a huge database and can see the Historic High of delay of thousands bets and a hundred of teams.
So lets going to look
HISTORIC HIGH of delays that has reached.., for example, the Premier League leader Leicester City:
EVEN
|
ODD
|
EVEN HT
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
IP
|
IP
|
IP
|
46,61
|
53,39
|
56,64
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
8
|
6
|
6
|
ODD HT
|
EVEN HT2
|
ODD HT2
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
|
IP
|
IP
|
IP
|
43,36
|
52,21
|
47,79
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
13
|
6
|
7
|
* LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT means total goals.
If you calculate its MP none of them exceeded 99,99
I chose EVEN AND ODD because
people usually think that soccer is not a game of chance as any other, and even and odd is consider to be chance, what in football they think is more similiar to a toss coin..,but for me
everything is the same, lets see other statistics
that people think governed by football's criteria:
LEICESTER
CITY WINS
|
|
IP
|
48,38
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
13
|
The same, if you calculate its MP you will have 99,990
DOUBLE
CHANGE LEICESTER CITY DRAW OR LOSES
|
|
IP
|
51,62
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
7
|
over again, this time is not even near 99.99..
LEICESTER
CITY SCORES HT: YES
|
|
IP
|
50,74
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
9
|
the same
LEICESTER
CITY'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
|
|
IP
|
46,31
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
9
|
over and over again, the same, there is a breaking point at MP 99.99. and more than 98% of time fulfills
Lets see now others with lower IP, so the odds for this one used to be over 3 or 4, sometimes even over 9:
LEICESTER
CITY'S OPPONENT WINS HT2
|
|
IP
|
22,71
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
22
|
If you calculate its MP for this historic high would be 99,73
LEICESTER
CITY SCORES BOTH HALVES: YES
|
|
IP
|
32,15
|
HISTORIC HIGH
|
18
|
MP: 99,93 for this one..
*For calculate the Monitoring Probability you can use the MP Calculator in my blog: MPSbets. Remember that we enter to bet when MP is over 99.50 and we're going to succeed before exceeding 99.99, >99.995 (we call it MP100).